Ethiopia is fracturing along the same historical fault lines that have broken every single political transition in its modern history. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is facing a newly formed armed coalition known as the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival. This group brings together old rivals including the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the Amhara Fano militia, and the Oromo Liberation Army under a single banner with one stated goal: removing the federal government.
If you have watched East African politics for more than five minutes, you already know how this ends.
Coalitions built entirely on opposing a common enemy rarely survive the moment they have to decide who gets power. The math behind the current rebellion looks impressive on paper. Multiple armed factions fighting simultaneously stretch federal drone and ground forces across the country. Yet, military coordination is not political consensus.
The Territorial Trap That Will Tear the Alliance Apart
You cannot build a functional government while avoiding the exact land disputes that started the civil wars in the first place. Both the TPLF and Amhara Fano claim western Tigray, commonly referred to as Wolgait-Tsegede.
The founding declaration of the alliance sweeps this dispute under the rug by promising to negotiate later. That strategy is a political ticking time bomb. Tigrayan leaders cannot abandon displaced populations without facing an immediate domestic backlash. Fano commanders cannot concede the territory without losing the loyalty of their frontline fighters.
History proves this fragile math fails quickly. In November 2021, a similar coalition formed in haste as Tigrayan and Oromo forces advanced toward Addis Ababa. By January 2022, internal rivalries, localized violence, and competing territorial claims fractured the block from within. The Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front walked out over civilian casualties. The TPLF eventually signed the Pretoria agreement, cutting ties with other insurgent groups to secure its own regional survival.
Abiy’s administration understands this structural weakness well. The federal government continues to manage state infrastructure projects, prepare for upcoming parliamentary sessions, and lean heavily on military drone superiority.
Internal Divisions Behind Closed Doors
External unity masks deep internal fractures within each member organization of the coalition. The TPLF remains bitterly divided over its relationship with Addis Ababa and the implementation terms of the Pretoria agreement. Fano functions less as a unified regular army and more as a collection of regional militias with distinct local priorities. Even the Ogaden National Liberation Front faces an internal split, with overseas factions endorsing the alliance while local leadership inside the Somali region denies any formal involvement.
When a seven-party signature statement claims to represent millions of people who disagree on basic constitutional boundaries, federalism, and the distribution of state resources, it is built on sand.
The Foreign Interference Factor
External backing from Eritrea introduces an entirely separate layer of danger. Addis Ababa has repeatedly accused Asmara of sheltering and supplying the rebel alliance. While Eritrea denies direct involvement, rising tensions over Red Sea access and unresolved post-war grievances make cross-border military support a major escalation risk.
Dependence on foreign allies often backfires in domestic Ethiopian politics. Once a rebel group relies heavily on external patrons, domestic rivals easily paint them as foreign proxies, destroying any remaining popular legitimacy among ordinary citizens tired of external meddling.
What Comes Next
Expect a prolonged, grinding war of attrition rather than a sudden collapse of the central government. Localized rebel offensives will stretch state security forces thin, but capturing territory is vastly different from governing it. If territorial compromises fail, the alliance will experience rapid internal fragmentation, much like its 2021 predecessor.
Removing Abiy Ahmed through force will not magically resolve arguments over land rights, ethnic federalism, or constitutional command structures. Victory for the coalition without a clear political roadmap risks plunging the country into an even deeper cycle of internal conflict. Stop looking for shortcuts to peace in Ethiopia. Address the land, power, and representation disputes directly, or prepare for the next iteration of the exact same civil war.
